AI Versus Human: Predicting The Masters Winner

We are just three weeks and change from the start of the 2025 Masters.

While some of you will be lucky patrons chowing down on pimento cheese sandwiches and hitting the most important spots of Augusta National, the rest of us will be watching the tournament on TV.

Either way, you want to know who is going to win the green jacket.

Betting odds have long existed as a way to handicap golf tournaments but a relatively new tool in the predictive market is AI.

I was interested in whether ChatGPT could beat me in a contest of accurately predicting the Masters winner so I fed it current Masters odds, Strokes Gained stats and some historical info on the tournament.

It gave me a surprising answer I wasn’t expecting—a player outside the top five on the odds sheet.

AI’s prediction for the 2025 Masters

To set the stage, here are the current betting odds to win the Masters (these change constantly, but this is just to give you an idea).

For those unfamiliar with gambling, the odds relate to how much you would win on a $100 bet. So if you were to bet $100 on Scottie Scheffler to win, you would receive $450 for a winning ticket.

Scottie Scheffler	+450
Rory McIlroy	+800
Ludvig Aberg	+1200
Xander Schauffele	+1300
Jon Rahm	+1300
Collin Morikawa	+1900
Bryson DeChambeau	+2200
Hideki Matsuyama	+2300
Justin Thomas	+2800
Brooks Koepka	+3100
Jordan Spieth	+3200
Patrick Cantlay	+3200
Tyrrell Hatton	+3300
Joaquin Niemann	+3300
Shane Lowry	+3800
Tommy Fleetwood	+3900
Will Zalatoris	+4900
Cameron Smith	+5000
Tony Finau	+5000
Russell Henley	+5500
Dustin Johnson	+5500
Maverick McNealy	+5500
Jason Day	+6000

I assumed AI would favor either Scheffler or McIlroy for obvious reasons. They are the top two players in the world at the moment.

However, the victor was Collin Morikawa. At +1900, Vegas has Morikawa well behind Scheffler, McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele and Jon Rahm. ChatGPT likes him, however.

It’s not a crazy pick by any measure. Morikawa is the No. 4 player in the Official World Golf Ranking and No. 3 by Data Golf.

Still, I wouldn’t say he is the obvious choice.

It appears AI weighed Morikawa’s current form more heavily than his recent penchant for failing to close out tournaments. He has finished runner-up twice this season and posted a T10 finish at the Players Championship.

“It’s all about picking someone who fits Augusta National’s profile—elite ball-striking, strong approach play, and a solid short game under pressure,” ChatGPT wrote.

“His form has been trending well, and Augusta sets up perfectly for his elite iron play. If his putting stays solid, he’ll be a real contender.”

ChatGPT offered a variety of players that it liked in addition to Morikawa. That included Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Will Zalatoris and Aberg. Noticeably absent was McIlroy.

When pressed which one it liked the most beyond Morikawa, it leaned towards … Zalatoris!

The oft-injured Zalatoris has the ceiling to contend—and he’s done so at Augusta in the past—but the Texan currently stands well down the sheet at +4900 and just No. 61 in the OWGR.

Although his underlying ballstriking analytics look promising, he has yet to post a top-10 finish this year. His last victory was all the way back in 2022.

Labeling him as a Masters victor seems a bit ambitious.

What does the human think?

As a golf writer, I enjoy making predictions. Most of them are wrong because golf is notoriously hard to predict (and gamble on) but I still enjoy it.

I am in agreement with ChatGPT on skipping past Scheffler and McIlroy. Scheffler is off to a sluggish start this year and McIlroy, despite his terrific form, has serious demons at Augusta.

Morikawa is a decent pick but his Sunday scaries at Bay Hill—and the lack of a win for the past two seasons—doesn’t inspire confidence.

Schauffele has played sparingly and poorly to start the year so I would hold on him until the U.S. Open where he tends to thrive.

I’m looking at two LIV golfers to get the job done.

Jon Rahm, coming off a disastrous major season by his lofty expectations, is playing Rahm-like golf and loves the Masters. I think he’s in a better spot emotionally now that he has settled in with LIV.

Nobody is talking about him, which is a good place to be.

And then I’m intrigued by Bryson DeChambeau. He appeared stymied by Augusta until last year when he seemed to unlock a few elements to success. His T6 finish, combined with a U.S. Open triumph, made me believe that he has the complete package to win a green jacket.

Morikawa/Zalatoris (AI) versus Rahm/DeChambeau (human).

Let’s see who is right—machine or man.

Top Photo Caption: Will Scottie Scheffler win a third green jacket? AI doesn’t think so. (GETTY IMAGES/Maddie Meyer)

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