All Carry And No Roll: Idea That Agronomy Fuels Distance Gains Is Not Backed By PGA Tour Data

Agronomy—aka fast, hard running fairways—is the go-to faux argument for preserving distance standards should a Harry Higgs or Craig Stadler come along and blow the notion that “athletes fuel distance spikes”.

Certainly today’s generally more fit and better fit players generate increased clubhead speed, and, therefore more distance.

On the surface, agronomy as a distance booster should be a tougher sell since courses have never been greener. One very famous annual major stop, Augusta National, unapologetically presents fairways mown toward tees to slow down drives.

For now, don’t do a deep dive on 2020 yet because the numbers are not all in and the sample size differs from year’s past now that all PGA Tour tees have a Trackman. Look instead to the previous 13 years when the PGA Tour’s amazing ShotLink started measuring carry and distance on the two measuring holes per round.

Those fancy launch monitors peskily track carry while ShotLink documented the final distance of the drive.

Below is the Driving Distance Average vs. Carry Average and The Year’s Distance Leader’s stats.

2007
288.6 yard average on 265.7 yard carry average (Bubba Watson 315.2 yards on 300.3 yards of carry)

2008
287.3 yards on 268.8 yards of carry (Bubba Watson 315.1 yards on 294.0 carry)

2009
287.9 yards on 268.4 yards of carry (Robert Garrigus 312.0 yard avg on 297.8 yards of carry)

2010
287.3 yards on 267.9 yards of carry (Robert Garrigus 315.5 yard avg on 291.6 yards of carry)

2011
290.9 yards on 271.4 yards of carry (J.B. Holmes 318.4 yards on 314.8 yards of carry)

2012
289.1 yards on 274.6 yards of carry (Bubba Watson 315.5 yards on 307.7 yards of carry)

2013
287.2 yards on 273.1 yards of carry (Luke List on 306.3 yards on 296.9 yards of carry)

2014
288.8 yards on 272.6 yards of carry (Bubba Watson 314.3 yards on 305.0 yards of carry)

2015
289.7 yards on 275.8 yards of carry (Dustin Johnson 317.7 yards on 305.7 yards of carry)

2016
290.0 yards on 274.7 yards of carry (J.B. Holmes 314.5 yards on 303.7 yards of carry)

2017
292.5 yards on 278.4 yards of carry (Rory McIlroy 317.2 yards on 305.1 carry avg.)

2018
296.1 yards on 277.6 yards of carry (Rory McIlroy 319.7 yards on 305.6 carry avg.)

2019
293.9 yards on 279.1 yards of carry (Cameron Champ 317.9 on 311.0 carry avg.)

Recap: in 12 years the PGA Tour carry average jumped 13.4 yards (265.7 to 279.1), while the driving distance average jumped just 5.3 yards. (It sits at 296.0 this year with two events to go.)

Roll is going the other direction and not fueling distance gains. In the 13-year span above, here is the average amount of roll starting with 2007 and going to 2019:

22.9 yards

18.5

19.5

19.4

19.5

14.5

14.1

16.2

13.9

15.3

14.1

17.0

14.8

The average PGA Tour drive rolls 16.9 yards in that 13-year span on a 289.9 yard average, meaning roll accounts for barely more than 5% of the average tee shot.

From 2007 to 2012 the average tee shot produced 19.1 yards of roll.

From 2014 to 2019 the average produced 15.1 yards of roll.

The amount of time the ball hits the ground and starts running is on the decline. Agronomy is playing less of a factor while the carry average has outpaced driving distance average.