Golf Nerd Numbers: Bryson’s Bunker Blast Was A Statistical Anomaly

The golf world is still talking about the epic finish we saw at the U.S. Open.

While Rory McIlroy made three untimely bogeys over his last four holes—including two short misses to save par—Bryson DeChambeau won the tournament with a ridiculous sandy on the 72nd hole.

After going well left off the tee, DeChambeau punched out into the front bunker. He had 55 yards remaining to the hole, an awkward distance. He pulled it off, hitting it to inside of four feet. He even left himself with an uphill putt that was pretty straightforward.

On his LIV profile, DeChambeau lists a “60-yard bunker shot” as the shot that gives him the most difficulty. It wasn’t exactly a favorable position when he needed par to win his second major title.

But just how clutch was the shot? It is certainly among the most timely major championship shots ever but would it be No. 1 on the list?

He Made It Look Easy, But It Wasn’t

The statistical breakdown of the bunker shot makes you realize just how brilliant it was.

Over the course of the tournament, only eight players found that bunker with their approach shots. DeChambeau was the only player of that group to get up and down. The average proximity to the hole from that bunker was just under 35 feet.

The average proximity to the hole when a PGA Tour player is faced with a 55-yard bunker shot is about 38 feet.

Based on Tour data, golf data scientist Lou Stagner calculated that a Tour player would only expect to hit that shot inside of four feet around 1.7% of the time.

That one shot gained 0.94 strokes on the field. That is a fancy way of saving that it wasn’t at all expected for him to get up and down in that situation. The most likely outcome would have been hitting it to a distance where he only had a slim chance of converting the par attempt.

Another layer to this is that DeChambeau’s bunker play has often been one of his weaknesses throughout his career. There aren’t sand save stats for LIV but DeChambeau ranked No. 119 in sand save percentage during his final full season on Tour. He was also No. 162 for proximity to the hole from the sand.

If you add in the pressure of being on the 72nd hole of a U.S. Open, this deserves to be considered among the all-time great shots with a player being under the gun in a major.

“From a technicality standpoint, you can’t miss it a millimeter behind the ball or a millimeter too close to the ball,” DeChambeau said of the shot. “From 60 yards with an open face, it’s an explosion shot, and if you catch it just a little thin, I’m hitting it into that clubhouse. There is no room for error. Very, very little room for error. For it to even go that far out of a bunker takes a pretty darned good amount of strength.

“If I chunked it, too, it’s short, hits the front edge and comes right back down. Now I’m trying to get up-and-down just to get into a playoff… the difficulty level was through the roof.”

One Of The Great Bunker Shots Ever?

Given the circumstances, DeChambeau’s shot should be considered one of the all-time great bunker shots in a major.

It comes only two years after another critical bunker shot occurred in a U.S. Open. Matt Fitzpatrick, leading Will Zalatoris by one stroke, hit a sensational shot out of the fairway bunker on the 72nd hole to secure the 2022 U.S. Open at Brookline. Two putts later, he was the U.S. Open champion.

I would put DeChambeau’s shot ahead of Fitzpatrick’s given the awkwardness of DeChambeau’s yardage, but both were impressive.

Here are a few other memorable bunker shots in majors.

Where would you put DeChambeau’s shot in the pantheon of great bunker shots in major history?

Bob Tway (1986 PGA Championship)

Tway erased a four-stroke deficit to Greg Norman, arriving to the 72nd hole at Inverness tied with the Shark. He found the greenside bunker with his approach shot while Norman had a 25-foot birdie putt.

In arguably the most famous bunker shot golf has seen, Tway holed it for a birdie and the win.

Sandy Lyle (1988 Masters)

Needing a par for a playoff and a birdie for the victory, Lyle’s tee shot found the left fairway bunker on the 72nd hole. He hit a 7-iron, just picking it cleanly to clear the lip, setting himself up with a 10-foot putt to win the Masters. He holed the downhill putt for the victory.

Birdie Kim (2005 U.S. Women’s Open)

With co-leader Morgan Pressel watching from the fairway, Birdie Kim holed a long bunker shot on the 72nd hole at Cherry Hills to take a stunning one-stroke lead. Pressel couldn’t match.

Top Photo Caption: Bryson DeChambeau’s bunker shot on the 72nd hole of last week’s U.S. Open was one of the great sand saves in major championship history. (GETTY IMAGES/Tracy Wilcox)

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