This two-month rebound has allowed us to climb from a 16% YTD deficit on April 30 to now a 3% lead over 2019. Seems almost inconceivable given the loss of 20 million spring rounds from course shutdowns and virus-related anxieties. And the good news is likely to keep coming. Several golf course management companies have told us that August has been almost as good.
We did a little digging for perspective. Only three times in at least the past 151 months has the industry seen a monthly rounds increase of 20% or more. All three were during a heatwave in late 2011/early 2012, yielding surges in play at courses in the north that were typically closed and at a time of year when percentage increases can be misleading. To have a jump this significant during a high-volume summer month is unprecedented and reflects approximately 10 million more July rounds versus a year ago.
Our latest year-end forecast has us up 2% to 6% year-over-year. Consider this – we haven’t seen more than a 5% Y.O.Y. increase since 2012 (during that surreal winter heatwave).