Predicting This Year’s Major Champions

It’s that time of year again. 

With only two weeks left before the Masters starts, major championship season is nearly upon us. 

Sluggish TV ratings in 2024 have told a story that fans are tired of pro golf’s division. The continued fracturing has made the majors more valuable as players on the PGA Tour and LIV Golf only come together four times a year. 

As it did last year, that divide has created a sense of mystery heading into the four most important events. We have a lot of context on the PGA Tour side, but not as much for LIV. 

We know the best golfer in the world is Scottie Scheffler—the only real debate to be had is how dominant he can be during a run of historically strong ballstriking. 

We know a bevy of the game’s stars have been stalled out so far this season. Among players who are currently trending in the wrong direction: Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Kim. 

There are a few players surging, although it’s a short list. Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark and Ludvig Aberg are all in terrific form. 

On the LIV side, it’s harder to know what to expect. There is data from LIV events, but it’s hard to really say how much it matters. 

One would guess that Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka should be factors in majors. Anyone after that is considered a wildcard at the moment. 

Joaquin Niemann has been playing well and earned a special exemption into the Masters and PGA Championship—but his best major finish in 19 career starts is a T16. Tyrrell Hatton’s major record is slightly better but also uninspiring. 

Bryson DeChambeau is quietly up to No. 21 in Data Golf after a lengthy struggle. He had a T4 in the PGA Championship last year.

Dustin Johnson hasn’t done much to prove he’s still a major threat, but the pedigree is there. The same could be said for Cameron Smith, a world-class player who has quickly been forgotten. 

There are a ton of players coming into the major season with question marks. It feels like there are less sure-fire contenders this year as opposed to previous years. 

How will it all shake out? I will give it my best guess. 

Masters: Xander Schauffele

This is a gamble but the numbers say it’s time for Schauffele to win his first major. 

Schauffele is No. 2 in Data Golf on the strength of six top-10 finishes so far this year. He almost won The Players and has made two spirited runs at the Masters in past years, including a T2 in 2019 and a T3 in 2021. His best chance of those two came in 2021 when he nearly caught Hideki Matsuyama late on the back nine. 

Although he has seven PGA Tour victories, it feels like Schauffele hasn’t won enough. He is coming up on two years since his last win, which came at the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open. 

I’m taking a flier here and saying that Schauffele’s consistency will eventually get him into the winner’s circle at a time when there aren’t that many players banging on the door. I like what he said after The Players when he commented on taking accountability for the missed opportunity. 

This seems like his year to get on the board. 

Honorable mention: Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas

PGA Championship: Wyndham Clark

Clark is on a scorching hot run, and I think he pays it off with a second major to fully validate himself as a top five player. 

What I like about Clark is his fearlessness. He shows up to the biggest golf tournaments ready to win, which is not something you can say about some of the other top players. 

Valhalla, the PGA Championship host, is a ballstriker’s paradise that will limit players who can’t mash it off the tee. 

Clark is a dynamo from tee to green (No. 8 on Tour) and is arguably the best putter (No. 12 on Tour) among the top players at the moment. 

Why can’t he win another major? 

Honorable Mention: Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Will Zalatoris, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg

U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler

Welcome back to Pinehurst. The last time we were here, Martin Kaymer comfortably won the 2014 U.S. Open using a stellar short game where he putted from off the green no less than 87 times throughout the week (don’t check my math on that one). 

This is a unique U.S. Open venue in that there is no heavy rough. Missing fairways will put players in native grass, which will be a crapshoot. 

The real value in picking up shots will come with approach play and limiting damage around the turtleback greens. 

I know this is crazy, but I’m going to pick the guy who is No. 1 in strokes gained approach and No. 5 in strokes gained around the greens. His short game touch is highly underrated. 

If Scheffler’s putter can stay above ground, I love him at Pinehurst. His past three U.S. Open starts, Scheffler has gone T7-T2-3, which is his most consistent record out of any major. 

My case has been made about why Scheffler could win five or six times total this year (he is already at two wins). I have him only winning one major because the depth of competition in these events is so intense that it’s hard to win more than once. 

Scheffler is +450 to win the Masters and +650 to win the PGA, so it would make sense for him to win one of those prior to the U.S. Open. Golf can be weird, however. The spotlight will be bright during the Masters and I think Valhalla will turn into more of a putting contest than the other three majors. 

Honorable Mention: Brooks Koepka, Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Xander Schauffele

Open Championship: Jon Rahm

I’ve always felt like the Open Championship is the toughest major to predict. 

Weather is usually a factor, and even a great player can get on the wrong side of the draw. 

There also isn’t much history to go off of for past experience at Royal Troon, which last hosted the Open in 2016. The top 10 that year looked like this: Henrik Stenson, Phil Mickelson, J.B. Holmes, Steve Stricker, Sergio Garcia, Tyrrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy, Andrew Johnston, Bill Haas, Dustin Johnson and Soren Kjeldsen. Most of those guys won’t be factors this time around. 

When in doubt, go with a top player who plays well in conditions. 

Rahm has a T3 (2021) and a T2 (2023) at the Open, which bodes well for this year. 

He is still a bonafide top five player in the world who can do serious damage in windy conditions when a low ball flight is necessary. 

I would also say that, among all the LIV players, Rahm is the most likely to stay hungry and keep his game sharp despite the lack of serious tournament reps. I think he’ll remain a contender in majors for a long time. 

Honorable Mention: Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Tommy Fleetwood

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