The Door is Open For Scheffler to Dominate—And Golf Could Use It

Here is a mind-bending stat that keeps me up at night:

In 2023, Scottie Scheffler gained 2.98 strokes per round tee-to-green. It was the second-best year of ballstriking in the Strokes Gained era, only behind Tiger Woods in 2006. 

Comparisons to Tiger are usually unfair, but this is a straight-up statistical fact: Scheffler’s ballstriking is so sublime that it rivals the greatest tee-to-green golf we’ve seen in the past 20-plus years.  

A few months into 2024, Scheffler is threatening to do it again. 

He is No. 1 on the PGA Tour in these categories: scoring average (69.5), birdie average (5.48), greens in regulation (78 percent) and Strokes Gained tee-to-green (2.57). He is second in approach (1.19) and seventh off-the-tee (0.82). 

In the overall Strokes Gained category—which is simply scoring average relative to the field—Scheffler has a mammoth lead. It’s the kind of gap we have rarely seen in pro golf outside of Tiger. 

The former Texas Longhorn is beating everyone by an average of 2.49 strokes per round. Only three players this year are within one stroke of him (Mathieu Pavon, Doug Ghim and Jordan Spieth). 

That equates to Scheffler beating even his best competition by four strokes per tournament. 

After a runaway victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Scheffler could be in store for a dominating year.

Window Of Opportunity

Golf lacks a dominating presence. The depth of talent is immense and it’s hard to maintain momentum. 

Over the past handful of years, we’ve seen tremendous stretches from Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy and Scheffler himself. They tend to last a few months and then each player subsides back to their respective baselines. 

Scheffler is not only a prime candidate to embark on one of those runs—he could do it without an unexpected jump in performance. 

He has been remarkably consistent over the past few years. Since February 2022, Scheffler’s worst Data Golf ranking is No. 6. He has ranked first or second overall since May 2023. 

Below is his strokes gained chart for the past three years. The 0.0 on the y-axis represents the average Tour player. To be at or above 2.0 strokes gained per round—meaning you are better than field average by that margin, on average, each round—is a threshold that only elite, world-class players cross. 

As you can see, Scheffler has been living above that line for quite some time now. He’s become the safest bet in golf.

Scheffler’s run of standout play is even more impressive when you consider that his putting has put him in a straight jacket for large chunks of his pro career. 

How he handles his putting going forward might be the most compelling on-course story in golf. 

Scheffler was an above average putter in 2021-2022 when he ranked 58th on Tour, but the flatstick has been a liability in his other seasons. That includes last season when he ranked No. 162—an equivalent of a “Q4” loss for a college basketball team. 

The putting struggles held him back significantly in 2023, but he still won the Waste Management Phoenix Open and The Players Championship to go along with 17 (!) top-15 finishes. 

Scheffler got off to a similarly frustrating start on the greens this year, ranking No. 144 in Strokes Gained putting before changing into a TaylorMade Spider Tour X mallet last week. 

In addition to the putter change, his setup and demeanor looked different at Bay Hill. Scheffler did not use a line on his golf ball, instead relying on the putter’s alignment aid. That created a more natural feel, he said. 

Scheffler ranked fifth in putting for the week and had the best mark among the field during Sunday’s final round. 

Some back-of-the-napkin math shows that Scheffler could have easily won at least five times last season if his putting was around Tour average. 

What if his putting is better than average? 

Combined with historically good ballstriking, there is definitely a world where Scheffler rattles off five or more wins this season. 

Winning is obviously difficult. As of this writing, Scheffler’s odds to win The Players were +550. The next best player (McIlroy) had +1300 odds. That is a huge gap, relatively speaking, but it still shows how hard it is to win. 

Scheffler has about a 12 percent chance of victory. No player has ever repeated at The Players, so it would be a historic victory if he won.

Would anyone be surprised if he won by several shots? Probably not.

Where Did All The Stars Go?

The Tour is having a tough time with star power—and this week’s Players Championship field is the weakest we’ve seen in recent memory. 

It’s another key reason Scheffler could do damage this week and the remainder of this year. 

On top of players like Rahm, DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, Joaquin Niemann and Tyrrell Hatton going to LIV, the stars that decided to stay on Tour are mostly off to a shaky start in 2024. 

Where is world No. 2 McIlroy? He has no top-20 finishes in his last four Tour starts. 

Where is Hovland, the world No. 4 who went on a tear at the end of last season? He has started the year going T22-T58-T19-T36. 

Xander Schauffele hasn’t won since July 2022. Patrick Cantlay hasn’t won since August 2022. 

We’re quickly approaching two years since Jordan Spieth last won. Same for his friend Justin Thomas. 

Max Homa is a bonafide top 10 player in the world but has yet to prove much in golf’s biggest events. In 17 major starts, his best finish is a T10 at last year’s Open Championship. 

Collin Morikawa is No. 7 in the Data Golf rankings but has a propensity for ejecting himself from tournaments. He has nine missed cuts or WDs since the beginning of last year. 

Yes, competition on Tour is fierce. The 50th-best golfer in The Players Championship field could easily win this week. 

But at a time when the Tour could desperately use some of its marketable faces to contend for golf’s biggest titles, they have mostly fallen flat. 

We’re waiting for some of them to come alive—maybe this is the week. 

If they don’t, Scheffler’s best competition may come when he goes up against Rahm, Koepka and others at the four majors. 

This Could Be Good For Golf

There is a lot of negativity around golf right now, including from me. 

Honestly, the pro game deserves it. 

But a run of dominance from Scheffler could be the spark the Tour needs at the moment. I get that he doesn’t have the same mass appeal of a McIlroy or a Spieth, but it’s fun to watch him play golf. 

His footwork is intoxicating. His consistency is mesmerizing. His touch around the greens is overlooked. 

While his personality doesn’t draw much emotion out of viewers, the way he plays the game does. 

If he wins this week and gets into contention at the Masters—and if the putting holds up moving forward—it will be an interesting storyline to see if anyone can defeat him. 

Watching greatness is attractive. 

Don’t get me wrong—Scheffler is not Tiger. Nobody could be. 

That doesn’t mean he can’t be great.

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