We’ve gone three-for-three playing this game in 2024.
Each major, we offer 10 players who have the best chance to win. So far, the first three major victors have been from that pool of 10 guys.
Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau are on the board.
Who will be next?
Let’s start by talking about who won’t win this week at Royal Troon.
In an interesting turn, I am punting on big-event hunter Brooks Koepka. It’s been a thoroughly disappointing major season for Koepka. His putter has deserted him so far this season. Also, he’s never seriously contended in an Open Championship.
Schauffele also won’t make my list this time. I think he will get one more major in his career but it will come in a U.S. Open where he regularly contends. Schauffele has struggled to contend in Open Championships, only earning one top-10 result in six starts.
Lastly, I’m going to skip on Bob MacIntyre after his big Scottish Open victory. A lot of emotional energy went into that win and it will be difficult to maintain that adrenaline throughout another 72 holes. It would be epic if the Scotsman won in his home country (again), however.
Who is on the list? Let’s get into it.
Scottie Scheffler
Since March, Scheffler has won 60 percent of his starts. It’s easy math because he has six wins in 10 appearances.
Is it fair to say his major season would be a disappointment if he doesn’t win this week? I think so. Scheffler has been so unbelievably good that winning only one major seems like a letdown.
In a twisted way, there is additional pressure on him this week. No golfer has threatened his dominance. It’s a time when Scheffler could be rattling off several majors and making his case as one of the best golfers ever.
Scheffler will be even more focused after a middling performance at Pinehurst. Expect him to contend this week at Troon.
Collin Morikawa
I’m bullish on Morikawa this week for a few reasons.
One is that his lack of distance is not too much of a disadvantage this week. Troon values accuracy more than the average PGA Tour course, which also plays into Morikawa’s hands.
But more than anything, Morikawa is trending in the right direction. Since the Masters, he has gone: T3-9-T23-T16-T4-4-2-T14-T13-T4. Morikawa is up to No. 4 in Data Golf’s rankings.
There is some concern that Morikawa struggles when conditions get difficult—but he’s playing too well to pass on him.
Rory McIlroy
I contemplated leaving Rory off this list. I’m concerned he won’t be 100 percent mentally after the brutal heartbreak at Pinehurst.
However, there is a dearth of big names playing well. McIlroy just finished T4 at the Scottish Open so he’s still very much in good form.
There is a possibility he comes out hyper-focused after what happened. He’s been dancing around a fifth major victory for the past couple of years. Maybe he’s finally due for some better luck.
Ludvig Aberg
I’m a believer in Aberg, the 54-hole leader at last week’s Scottish Open.
Aberg is an undeniable talent who seems to be quickly gaining information about what it’s like to play in majors. After a solo second in the Masters, he missed the cut at the PGA but came back with a T12 at the U.S. Open.
Aberg has been sniffing around the winner’s circle all year and I’m betting he gets one before the season closes.
Bryson DeChambeau
The Open has been the worst major of DeChambeau’s career. He only has one top-30 finish in six starts.
However, I’m buying that he is in the zone at the moment. He is in a good place mentally. If he can get into contention, his presence on the leaderboard will be significant.
For what it’s worth, he has continued to play well after his U.S. Open triumph by earning a pair of top-10 finishes in LIV events. Add that to a major season where he hasn’t finished outside the top six and I think you have to include DeChambeau here.
Tommy Fleetwood
There is no doubt that Fleetwood rises to the occasion in the Open. He has four top-12 finishes in his last five starts.
He’s also in solid form, rising to No. 11 in Data Golf and No. 12 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Fleetwood had a T3 at the Masters and hasn’t missed a cut since March.
Fleetwood seems to be allergic to winning—he’s never won a Tour event—but he did get a victory on the Euro Tour this year. I’m willing to bet he gets in contention.
Tyrrell Hatton
Another Englishman I like to play well is Tyrrell Hatton.
His Open Championship record is strong with three top-20 finishes in his last four starts. He’s also trending in the right direction with a victory at LIV Nashville and a solo third at LIV Andalucia.
Hatton has made the cut in 11 consecutive majors and I have a gut feeling he will be in the mix this week.
Viktor Hovland
I’m taking a flyer on Hovland, a player who is drifting down the board due to struggles in 2024.
This event seems to awaken something in the Norwegian. Hovland is T12-4-T13 in his three starts at The Open.
He contended in the PGA Championship (down to the 72nd hole) and has put together a couple of decent outings since. The best ball strikers tend to rise in bad weather, which we could get.
Tony Finau
It’s been a terrific summer for Finau who is now up to No. 10 in Data Golf.
I’m encouraged by his recent run of T8-T3-T5. That included a serious run in the U.S. Open. Finau also had a solo third in the Open Championship back in 2019.
He hasn’t won since the 2023 Mexico Open, which is concerning, but I could see Finau getting into contention on Sunday.
Brian Harman
Could Harman repeat as the Open Champion?
He’s playing solid golf this summer and had a runner-up finish at the Players Championship in March. Harman is also among the straightest drivers of the ball, which will be vital at Troon.
It’s a long shot for him to find that major magic again—but he did win by six strokes last year.
Top Photo Caption: Rory McIlroy looks to rebound from his U.S. Open collapse (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
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